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Jeff, thanks for all of your insight and taking the time to summarize your findings. I have a particular interest in the future of visualization software for landscape architecture as I am the professional practice network (PPN) chair for the American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA). I recently gave a presentation at the national conference summarizing our professions status and future. I was joined by ESRI and E-on Software. I really love the Gartner graph, and while not all are applicable many of those points were in my presentation in some form. One major convergence I see for landscape architecture is the convergence of attribute data (GIS), procedural modeling like Vue's smartgrowth technology and City Engine, and the capability to provide real-time navigation either stand alone or ultimately hosted in a virtual world like Google Earth but photorealistically rendered. I also have a question for you and anyone else reading. Can you recommend any technologies for augmented reality? I have done some initial research, but want to hear your impression on the topic. Thanks again, Dave

Nice article. I really need to refine (and probably redefine) my business plan for the next 5-10 years and with any luck beyond that. Thank you for putting this together!

A very interesting and in depth write up thanks jeff I look forward to the development of the things mentioned in this article and wait to see what direction the industry moves in.

Thanks for article, Jeff. Totally agree on your thoughts. One thing to add: Personally I think technologies alone won't make your business instantly healthy. And one shouldn't confuse Gartner's Hype Report (very cool by the way) with a business graph. It's proven by those 10-20% professionals in our industry who combine technology with human creativity. New waves of technologies are great accelerators in the right hands.

Thanks Jeff, interesting read. Watcha gonna make?

Likely small scale engines, although it will take some time to work up to something that complex. I've also thought about trying to build an from scratch too. The internals have that would need to be machined.

Thanks Jeff, interesting read. Watcha gonna make?

Thanks for all your hard work on this article Jeff.

You're welcome!

Thanks for all your hard work on this article Jeff.

Cool 3D printer

I agree, thank you. Phil

Jeff, thanks for your throughoutly answer. Means a lot.

So...... if you had money .....what would you invest in?

I'd invest in developing your business model. I'd think about the business model first and the tools second. Generally tools don't make a business on their own, at least not for long. You can however look at how technologies and trends are developing to help you determine the best direction to go. I worked for many years doing visualization and it was not until I had stopped doing it for a few years that I stopped focusing on the minutia and started looking at the bigger picture. It's easy when you are in the day to day grind to lose focus of that. I used to love keeping up with what new shiny feature was coming next on product X, but the reality is that generally has very little impact on the core business.

what do you think of as the best way for US and Europe visualizers to adapt to survive in the business in 3-5 years from now? - If we were starting "the process" tomorrow. It depends on the type of clients you have, but I would ensure that both your client base and client offering are as diversified as possible. In the last 12 months I've heard people tell me they had their best year in history in 2012 and others tell me they had their worst year in history. More often than not when the latter was the case it was because too many eggs were in one basket. If it were me, I'd not want any one customer contributing more than 25% of your total revenue. That way if you lose that client you're not at risk of going out of business. I would also start to look at the design process more closely and see how that is evolving. At the end of the day what our industry does is facilitate design and the sale of design. Don't just look at what new feature your rendering engine can do or be too inward focused on our niche industry. No one hires you because they think you have better ambient occlusion than the guy down the street. The days of photo-real being differentiators are over. I notice that you don't mention outsourcing. I didn't because it's natural evolution for most industries and there is nothing you can do about globalization except compete on a different level. If you're only competitive advantage is the fact you know how to operate a software and offer a cheap price, then you're not likely to last long term as someone else will operate the software for less. Your business model has to be more than just creating a pretty picture. Look at the more successful/larger companies in our industry and look at the type of work they are doing and how they are doing it. There is not a single company I know of that has been around for 15 years+ that complains about losing work to outsourcing to a point that its really affected them long term. The reason is that their clients don't hire them on price alone. Long term you can't survive if all your clients care about is price. You will never win. And do you think creating an unique and beautiful artistic expression, with unique photoshop post work on our 3D work could be enough for us to keep our position? It depends on your client but certainly it will put you ahead of 80% of the industry. But only if your clients care. Anecdotally I would say a large part of the work created in our industry is poorly done for clients who could not differentiate a 5 out of 10 image from a 10 out of 10 image. That's why the democratization and simplification of visualization tools is going to be so impactful. If all you need to do is import a model that was being done anyway, drop a library of materials and lights into the model and press render, that is going to suffice for 80% of the work currently being done. And that type of work is going to be done much more often once the tools become more democratized. But I am still curious about your thoughts for the future of specifically professional europe based inhouse visualizers like myself. As someone else's employee I can't say how that will impact you, as your long term employment will depend on the type of work you do. If high end photo retouching and post production, animations, more complex visualization workflows make up a significant part of your day to day, then I suspect you'll be safe for the foreseeable future, but you may see a lot more of your colleagues doing some form of visualization in the future. If then an arcitect needs to spend time on producing marketing aids like high end stills, he/she is wasting valuable time that person instead could have used on drawing buildings for new clients. As I mentioned above, I don't see high end still being done by normal architects. They will however be using visualization throughout the entire design process to help them visualize and help them develop designs. The direction the tools are headed is not going to be a hindrance, but rather something that is almost as simple as picking up a pencil and sketching something. And as chinese workers recently discovered "luxury", I am sure the eastern "rendering partners" also will see increased business costs, which is perfectly fine. Yup, that's the natural evolution of globalization. That's why toys aren't made in Japan like they used to be in the 80's and why good Indian IT companies charge almost as much as their Western counterparts.

Interesting article. Thanks, Jeff. I do have some questions that I hope you will answer on, though. More specifically, what do you think of as the best way for US and Europe visualizers to adapt to survive in the business in 3-5 years from now? - If we were starting "the process" tomorrow. Obviously, we all can't be arcitects. Should we learn quicker workflows? I hear they need 20k railroad workers in China. ;) I notice that you don't mention outsourcing. Is that becoming secondary threat as these outsourcing studios will suffer ever more greatly from the rise of democratization than inhouse or domestic professionals? Or is the risk so high for us all becoming outsourcing managers in some years ahead, that our best shot would be taking leadership and diplomacy classes. And do you think creating an unique and beautiful artistic expression, with unique photoshop post work on our 3D work could be enough for us to keep our position? Many questions, and I know you won't have the right answers to all of them. But I am still curious about your thoughts for the future of specifically professional europe based inhouse visualizers like myself. And one last thing that you neighter mentioned in the article, and which you should take in the calculations. The overly need for a designer/arcitect to work quick on what them do best, to ensure that their employer can pay their high wage. It simply means that people has to be specialized in what they do to achieve satisfying effectivity, that be architects, 3D designers, bakers, burger flippers, craftsmen of any kind, and basically the whole western way of doing business due to high costs. And as chinese workers recently discovered "luxury", I am sure the eastern "rendering partners" also will see increased business

So...... if you had money .....what would you invest in? Software wise? I thought Lumion was the only one that might have a quick turn around from the basic model, for presentations. Phil

More access to 3D visualization will still be limited to generic environments. Technology for gaming and movie production will grow also - giving 3D artists new fields in which to create 3D environments for clients. With real-time I-ray and Vray rendering - it helps the architects and designers visualize, but I think there will be a market for creating custom environments in game engines and creating animations with special effects for the client. Architects can't green screen people, animate characters and add other environmental elements using only real-time renderers. Clients cannot navigate in Max - neither add materials, etc. It will still take a 3D specialist to do these. Add the fact that any designer can't open a 3D program and apply materials without knowledge of UVW mapping - and custom map creation. Just like Revit was going to be the ultimate solution for BIM and photo-real rendering, we were quick to find out that constructing custom furniture, light fixtures, etc. was a requisite for every project and had to be done in Max - there was still the need for someone skilled in model making to do it. When we look into the future we tend to see more doors closing than opportunities. As we see new technologies change the way we do things - lots other doors will open - just like the internet and mobile markets created opportunities we never thought of until we started using them. Julian

Jeff First of Happy New Year. Hope you had a good Break, if you had one, and well deserved too I am sure. The Article, I thought it was brilliant, there is so much in it.I had to look up a few things, which for me makes it worth reading.Very surprised more people have not commented. Always hard to see what way the industry is going, even at my level, but worth thinking about where should one think of investing to future proof the company. Thank you again. Phil